Should today’s 70-year-old Americans be considered “old?” Exactly how do you define
that term these days? Statistically, the average 70-year-old has only a 2% chance of
dying within a year. On the other side of the coin, the estimated upper limit of average
life expectancy is now 97, and a rapidly growing number of 70-year-olds will live past
age 100. In fact, according to a recent report from the Pew Research Center, the
number of centenarians in the US is expected to quadruple by 2054.
Perhaps more importantly, today’s 70-year-olds are in much better shape than their
grandparents were at the same age. In most developed countries, healthy life
expectancy from age 50 is growing faster than life expectancy itself, suggesting that the
period of diminished vigor and ill health towards the end of life is being compressed.
A series of articles in The Economist from a few years ago suggests that we need a
new term for people age 65–85 who are generally hale and hearty, capable of
knowledge-based work on an equal footing with 25-year-olds, and who are increasingly
being shunted out of the workforce as if they were invalids or, well, “old.” Indeed, the
article suggests that if this cohort does NOT start returning to the workplace, the impact
could be catastrophic on society as a whole.
Globally, a combination of falling birth rates and increasing lifespans threatens to
increase the “old-age dependency ratio” (the ratio of retired people to active workers)
from 13% in 2015 to 38% by the end of the century (the ratio stood at 27.69% in 2024,
according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). That, in turn, could lead to huge
fiscal strains on our pension and Social Security systems, because fewer workers would
be paying for retirement benefits for more retirees.
What to do? The article notes that, in the past, whenever a new life stage was
identified, deep societal and economic changes followed in the wake of the discovery.
A new focus on childhood in the 19th century paved the way for child-protection laws,
mandatory schooling, and a host of new businesses, from toymaking to children’s
books. When teenagers were first singled out as a distinct demographic in America in
the 1940s, they turned out to be a significant source of economic value, thanks to their
willingness to work part-time and spend their income freely on new goods and services.
The next most logical shift in our thinking could be separating out people age 65–85
from the traditional “old” and “retiree” categories and calling them something different.
(The article doesn’t offer a suggested name.) They might continue at their desks or
downshift into the kinds of part-time work that emphasize knowledge and relationships.
Currently, many who experience mandatory retirement retire to the so-called gig
economy. Though gigging is usually seen as something that young people do, in many
ways it suits older people better. They are often content to work part-time, are not
looking for career progression, and are better able to deal with the precariousness of
such jobs. The article notes that a quarter of drivers for Uber are over 50.
More broadly, a quarter of all Americans who say they work in the “sharing economy”
are over 55. Businesses that offer on-demand lawyers, accountants, teachers, and
personal assistants are finding plenty of recruits among older people. A 2023 report
from the Senate Committee on Aging found that nearly a third of “gig workers” are 55 or
older.
Still others are preparing for life beyond traditional retirement by becoming
entrepreneurs. In America people between 55 and 65 are now 65% more likely to start
up companies than those between 20 and 34. In Britain 40% of new founders are over
50, and almost 60% of the over-70s who are still working are self-employed.
One large economic contribution made by older people that does not show up in the
numbers is unpaid work. In Italy and Portugal around one grandmother in five provides
daily care for a grandchild, estimates Karen Glaser from King’s College London. That
frees parents to go out to work, saving huge sums on child care.
All of these changes represent societal adjustments to a reality that isn’t well-publicized:
the traditional retirement age increasingly makes no sense in terms of health, longevity,
and the ability to contribute. The sooner we find a label for healthy people age 65–85,
the faster we can start recognizing their potential to contribute.
Stay Diversified, Stay the Course!
Sources:
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/09/us-centenarian-population-is-
projected-to-quadruple-over-the-next-30-years/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPPOPDPNDOLUSA
https://www.aging.senate.gov/press-releases/americans-are-unretiring_braun-releases-
new-report-on-older-workforce
https://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21724745-ageing-populations-could-
be-boon-rather-curse-happen-lot?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/gettingtogripswithlongevity
